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Trachei
 
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Let me compile a list of legendary Legend|Killer Quotes, all can be viewed in this thread. http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=761250 Note, that some of his quotes are moronic and he misquoted me quite often.


Quote:
People like me, and my bank, enver got into this situation. As I have said, I don't disagree that banks will lose * a lot * of money, but your overstating the problem. What's really funny is that most people consider me very extreme with my viewpoint of this situation and I am telling you to chill.
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I know delinq/default rates are much higher than before. However, those numbers don't matter when it comes to actual losses to CDOs or RMBS paper. What matters are static pool losses that model into the structure of the paper. On that basis there are some deals that have blown up, there will be many more, but the losses aren't going to lead to financial "armageddon" as you claim.
Quote:
Will this be "financial armageddon"? No, it won't even be close. The markets will take a hit, I firmly believe CFC and Wachovia are toast. I think we'll see one i-bank die, maybe Bear. We might even see Citi get cut up. My banks fine and I am pretty good at my job (and cheap compared to others) so I think, at least for now, that I am fairly secure.
Quote:
I was just as calm then as I am now. I just think it's ridiculous for people to run around the internet posting stupid shit constantly in order to seem fucking cool. Wow, so you can say it's an "armageddon". Thanks for the POS hyperbole.
Quote:
1. Even with houses going down, not everybody will default. Consider that even subprime mortgages default at less than 6% based upon historical static pool default curves. Even if you triple that (Rating agency criteria for 3x static pool losses) you still come up with under 20% defaults.
Subprime went to 30% default rates and certain Alt-A pools also followed with 30% default rates. You were INSANELY wrong on this. Please let me know what companies you do models for so I can short the fuck out of them.


Quote:
4. You aren't looking at "worthless" paper, since it still has to default. The default propensity doesn't become 100% and correlation between originated pools do not come to 1. That is simply stupid, naive, and moronic. It merely shows you know one thing about ABS and mortgage origination, jackshit. Go back to your fucking headlines sparky.
Quote:
5. Yes, that's 1TR in subprime mortgages. Good fucking job at adding up your pennies sparky. That doesn't mean that 1TR will default. That doesn't mean that 1TR goes into CDOs. You know fuck all about modeling. You know fuck all about cashflows. You know fuck all about anything but what you are spoonfed from Reuters. |You know pretty much nothing about ABS modeling, stress runs, cashflow runs, monte carlo simulations, or estimating the amount of subordination you need at different stress levels.
Looks like you knew fuckall about anything.

Quote:
You're a fucking amateur and you come on here to make yourself look like you have a big dick. You're nothing but a sand flea dick in a pool of people who know far more than you. Good job, you've scared a bunch of people with your "financial Armageddon" post, but you still know not one goddamn fucking thing what you are talking about. You even scared some into thinking that Ron Paul will save them. You even managed to make a post from a blogger. Wow, you're so 2006 with your linking skills. You go girl with your moronic posts about 1TR origination = 1TR default = 1TR worthless paper. Your a fucking clueless git and it's sad you don't even realize it.
Yet you were proven completely wrong, and my amateur ass schooled you.

Quote:
However, my opinion is based upon 5 years of experience, plus heavy education in the area and experience in both the issuer and underwriter/originator side of the ABS market. I read 2-3 hours per day from a variety of sources about this. I think you're completely a fucking chicken little about this and you are trying desperately to seem smart in your groundless assessments. You're like the perfect tool of the MSM in your inability to grasp the actual problems and the size of the risk. You lack the sophistication to properly size the CDO market and the risks in it (actual loss vs paper loss). You are akin to the people who think that the derivatives market actually equals 450tr in outstanding. It's 450tr in *notional* which is a completely different animal.
Even with all your "Experience" and your 2-3 hours reading per day you still couldn't even see what was coming. Everything that I said was a risk to the market became a risk to the entire financial system. Everything you said wasn't a risk, became the biggest financial risk since the great depression. Hmmm, who knew what they were talking about and who didn't.....I'll help you out, it was you.

So if you could kindly just not post in this thread, that would be great, since you know fuckall about anything.

Last edited by Trachei; 09-20-2008 at 02:46 AM..
Old 09-20-2008, 02:20 AM Trachei is offline  
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LegendKiller
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trachei View Post
Let me compile a list of legendary Legend|Killer Quotes, all can be viewed in this thread. http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=761250 Note, that some of his quotes are moronic and he misquoted me quite often.

Subprime went to 30% default rates and certain Alt-A pools also followed with 30% default rates. You were INSANELY wrong on this. Please let me know what companies you do models for so I can short the fuck out of them.
Please link to where you see the default rates. Specifically, provide CUSIP numbers or bond series names. I'd love for you to show this.
Quote:
Looks like you knew fuckall about anything.

Yet you were proven completely wrong, and my amateur ass schooled you.

Even with all your "Experience" and your 2-3 hours reading per day you still couldn't even see what was coming. Everything that I said was a risk to the market became a risk to the entire financial system. Everything you said wasn't a risk, became the biggest financial risk since the great depression. Hmmm, who knew what they were talking about and who didn't.....I'll help you out, it was you.

So if you could kindly just not post in this thread, that would be great, since you know fuckall about anything.
Please, I'd love for you to be anything more than a blind squirrel finding a nut, but that'd be impossible, since it's exactly what you are. Sure, I may have underestimated how panic would grip the market, because that's exactly what it was. From a fundamental basis, the market is sound, liquidity is there. However, irrationality is abound. People are more afraid of losing money than making money, yet that fear is making them lose money.

You can't estimate people's reactions to certain events. For example, would anybody have guessed that overnight CP rates would go to 6-7%? There are guys who've been in the market for 30 years that have never seen that, nor would have thought it possible. However, when people get fearful, it goes deep.

Anybody can run around like an assclown and take one extreme position or another. You took one extreme position and went with the fear, I claimed more moderate positions. So fucking what? Are you some kind of Peter Lynch now?
Old 09-20-2008, 04:51 AM LegendKiller is offline  
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Fuckyouformakingmeregister
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What you don't seem to realize is that the government might actually be able to MAKE MONEY over time with these plans.
Old 09-20-2008, 09:09 AM Fuckyouformakingmeregister is offline  
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kudos
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Originally Posted by Fuckyouformakingmeregister View Post
What you don't seem to realize is that the government might actually be able to MAKE MONEY over time with these plans.

No, I'll bet you $100 USD (lol) that the government will find a way to fuck it up and the only people who make money are the rich people who fucked it up in the first place.
Old 09-20-2008, 09:56 AM kudos is offline  
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Zangmonkey
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Originally Posted by Fuckyouformakingmeregister View Post
What you don't seem to realize is that the government might actually be able to MAKE MONEY over time with these plans.

The system was originally intended to protect the people. This is why banks could go under but depositors were insured for their money.

This law insures BOTH parties and permits banks using poor practices to remain in business.

What we have done is to privatize profits and socialize losses.
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Old 09-20-2008, 10:12 AM Zangmonkey is offline  
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Trachei
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuckyouformakingmeregister View Post
What you don't seem to realize is that the government might actually be able to MAKE MONEY over time with these plans.









Old 09-20-2008, 11:40 AM Trachei is offline  
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LegendKiller
 
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Originally Posted by Zangmonkey View Post
The system was originally intended to protect the people. This is why banks could go under but depositors were insured for their money.

This law insures BOTH parties and permits banks using poor practices to remain in business.

What we have done is to privatize profits and socialize losses.

And what would you have done to fix the problem Oh Great Master of The Economy?
Old 09-20-2008, 11:40 AM LegendKiller is offline  
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Trachei
 
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Just so you know, you are so going to fucking lose:

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Please link to where you see the default rates. Specifically, provide CUSIP numbers or bond series names. I'd love for you to show this.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...st-update.html

There you go. There you fucking go. Do I need to pull up Subprime default stats too? I really don't want to waste my time showing what is all over the internet. You can use the internet right? It seems so obvious that you really do have no idea what you are talking about; I seem to know MORE than you even with you reading 2-3 hours a night. Please, tell me your company is publicly traded so I can get LEAP Puts on it.

Quote:
Please, I'd love for you to be anything more than a blind squirrel finding a nut, but that'd be impossible, since it's exactly what you are. Sure, I may have underestimated how panic would grip the market, because that's exactly what it was. From a fundamental basis, the market is sound, liquidity is there. However, irrationality is abound. People are more afraid of losing money than making money, yet that fear is making them lose money.

You can't estimate people's reactions to certain events. For example, would anybody have guessed that overnight CP rates would go to 6-7%? There are guys who've been in the market for 30 years that have never seen that, nor would have thought it possible. However, when people get fearful, it goes deep.

Anybody can run around like an assclown and take one extreme position or another. You took one extreme position and went with the fear, I claimed more moderate positions. So fucking what? Are you some kind of Peter Lynch now?
Which is exactly what I said would happen and what a thousand blogs on the internet said. This is what Nouriel Roubini said would happen, let me guess you are smarter than him cause you read 2-3 hours a day....
Old 09-20-2008, 11:45 AM Trachei is offline  
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Zangmonkey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegendKiller View Post
And what would you have done to fix the problem Oh Great Master of The Economy?

Not sure.

Seems to me that you're a bit biased on this end... considering you're employed in the industry.

My presumption (without having the same experience as the Fed or insider info) would be that the government should uphold their insurance for depositors and develop some time-release for people with retirements invested in "stable" funds.

Some of the troubled banks simply need to go under. Instead we're upholding a large industry based around handling bad debt.
Yes, that will fuck over some of the little guys and some of the big guys too... but you as much as anybody should understand the nature of the self-balancing system.
Nobody is talking about the invisible hand here, we're talking about the obvious fucking siter-fist that is being thrust about to push the market into line.


How many politicians saved their own skin and investment funds with this bill?
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Old 09-20-2008, 11:51 AM Zangmonkey is offline  
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Trachei
 
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Originally Posted by LegendKiller View Post
And what would you have done to fix the problem Oh Great Master of The Economy?

Here, let me tell you what is wrong with the economy.

Over-leveraging
Moral Hazard
Zero Transparency

What was fixed by the recent bailouts? Nothing. Now the banks can assign zero risk status to their MBS so they can continue to over-leverage and assign zero capital for risk on these assets. What a great fucking plan at the expense of the taxpayer.

Let me also guess, you think shutting down the shorts was great too. I'll post my own post I made somewhere to explain to a Senator how shorts are NOT the problem, they are enabled by the government.

Quote:
These shorts can attack because NOBODY BELIEVES THE CEO'S AND THEIR BALANCE SHEETS. Can anyone even trust their mark-to-market? Nobody knows who has what bad paper, CDS exposure, etc.

Investors can't make informed decisions BECAUSE of this. So if we had complete transparency the shorts wouldn't be able to take out good companies because everyone would be able to pull up the financials and see they are okay. People could come in and buy solid companies getting beat up and totally screw the shorts. This would happen forcefully.

This entire crisis is the result of Moral Hazard by the Fed, Treasury, Congress, the banks, and everyone who bought a house between 2003 and 2007. By creating more opaque Fed Alphabet soup facilities; investors have no idea what is going on. The Fed created a system where no investor knows who is borrowing from the Fed, so everyone assumes EVERY institution is borrowing from the Fed. Then, the CEO's come on TV and LIE about their situation and blow up the next day.

What kind of investor can trade in this market? It's not investing, it's running on headline news and that is the complete problem. Banning short selling is a band-aid on deeper problems that the Fed and Treasury have no intention of fixing; transparency and moral hazard.

Look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Wall Street analyst came in and said Fannie was cooking the books. Was anyone surprised?! They were not counting loans as past due until 2 years later! Where was that disclosure in their SEC filings? I don't remember seeing that ANYWHERE. So they blamed short sellers for taking it down, when it was REALLY the mismanagement of their entire company that took them down.

If you think short sellers are the problem then I urge you to please ask Secretary of the Treasury Paulson and Fed Chairmen Bernanke what they intend to do about the complete opaqueness of our markets and the complete disregard of moral hazard.
Old 09-20-2008, 11:52 AM Trachei is offline  
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LegendKiller
 
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Originally Posted by Trachei View Post
Just so you know, you are so going to fucking lose:



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...st-update.html

There you go. There you fucking go. Do I need to pull up Subprime default stats too? I really don't want to waste my time showing what is all over the internet. You can use the internet right? It seems so obvious that you really do have no idea what you are talking about; I seem to know MORE than you even with you reading 2-3 hours a night. Please, tell me your company is publicly traded so I can get LEAP Puts on it.



Which is exactly what I said would happen and what a thousand blogs on the internet said. This is what Nouriel Roubini said would happen, let me guess you are smarter than him cause you read 2-3 hours a day....

ZOMG, a series! Which had $500MM outstanding! How are we ever going to survive!

Now tell me, 'O great enlightened one, what % of mortgages originated in 04-07, were similar to that series, and how are they performing?

Extrapolate that further into how they will perform in the next 10 years.

As I said, you took one extreme position, but know nothing about the position you took, other than being a bloggohead. Wow, great, you win!
Old 09-20-2008, 11:58 AM LegendKiller is offline  
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Trachei
 
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Originally Posted by LegendKiller View Post
ZOMG, a series! Which had $500MM outstanding! How are we ever going to survive!

Now tell me, 'O great enlightened one, what % of mortgages originated in 04-07, were similar to that series, and how are they performing?

Extrapolate that further into how they will perform in the next 10 years.

As I said, you took one extreme position, but know nothing about the position you took, other than being a bloggohead. Wow, great, you win!

Look, you were fucking wrong and you still fail to admit it. Jesus dude, just admit you have NO idea what you are talking about. This series was also 50% weighted to California....Jee you think that might be foretelling about something. Of course not, because you still have no idea what you are talking about and you can't admit it.
Old 09-20-2008, 11:59 AM Trachei is offline  
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#57  

LegendKiller
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trachei View Post
Here, let me tell you what is wrong with the economy.

Over-leveraging
Moral Hazard
Zero Transparency

What was fixed by the recent bailouts? Nothing. Now the banks can assign zero risk status to their MBS so they can continue to over-leverage and assign zero capital for risk on these assets. What a great fucking plan at the expense of the taxpayer.

Let me also guess, you think shutting down the shorts was great too. I'll post my own post I made somewhere to explain to a Senator how shorts are NOT the problem, they are enabled by the government.

Hey, where was the fix in your regurgitation of an extreme position? You're great at picking an extreme side, but still haven't been able to post a fix.
Old 09-20-2008, 12:00 PM LegendKiller is offline  
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LegendKiller
 
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Look, you were fucking wrong and you still fail to admit it. Jesus dude, just admit you have NO idea what you are talking about. This series was also 50% weighted to California....Jee you think that might be foretelling about something. Of course not, because you still have no idea what you are talking about and you can't admit it.

Answer the question, you're great at posting other people's fearmongering. Yet you don't know how that relates to the whole problem. What % of originations are similar?
Old 09-20-2008, 12:01 PM LegendKiller is offline  
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#59  

ElectribeCyanide
 
I really enjoyed reading this thread.
I'm nowhere near smart enough to comment at this point.
Old 09-20-2008, 12:08 PM ElectribeCyanide is offline  
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