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Kalibah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geotpf
Kerry will be either tied or behind until the debates (possibly shortly before them). He will come out of the debates consistantly but not overwelmingly ahead, and remain ahead until election day.


I think the total opposite :P

the beauty of democracy at work


I just wish the political threads would end
We should have ONE bush bashing thead and ONE kerry bashing thread and then ONE Who will you vote for and why thread. Then have our own mini-election the week of the elections then DROP the fucking issue

No one that is pro-bush is going to ever be convinced that kerry is better and no one pro-kerry is gonna be convinced that bush is better- and if your undecided just scroll down a bit and read the other 10000 fucking threads dealing with the same issue
Old 09-03-2004, 02:22 PM Kalibah is offline  
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brouski
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendetta
Youre surprised you see a surge during the RNC?

Wait until the debates...

Kerry didn't get one. The comparison is interesting.
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:24 PM brouski is offline  
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#17  

sk33
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalibah
I think the total opposite :P

the beauty of democracy at work


I just wish the political threads would end
We should have ONE bush bashing thead and ONE kerry bashing thread and then ONE Who will you vote for and why thread. Then have our own mini-election the week of the elections then DROP the fucking issue

No one that is pro-bush is going to ever be convinced that kerry is better and no one pro-kerry is gonna be convinced that bush is better- and if your undecided just scroll down a bit and read the other 10000 fucking threads dealing with the same issue

This wasn't a bush bashing, kerry bashing or who are you voting for and why thread. This was a thread about the interesting poll numbers post RNC.

If you don't like political threads, then perhaps you should explore the other subforums.
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:27 PM sk33 is offline  
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#18  

RyanVM
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Holy crap, Dick Morris was right. He was predicting an 8-10 point bounce for Bush (and Kerry didn't get ANY bounce after his convention).
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:28 PM RyanVM is offline  
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#19  

sk33
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanVM
Holy crap, Dick Morris was right. He was predicting an 8-10 point bounce for Bush (and Kerry didn't get ANY bounce after his convention).

Dick Morris, like his politics or not, is right more often than not.
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:29 PM sk33 is offline  
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#20  

Kalibah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sk33
This wasn't a bush bashing, kerry bashing or who are you voting for and why thread. This was a thread about the interesting poll numbers post RNC.

If you don't like political threads, then perhaps you should explore the other subforums.


I understand this thread isnt- but i posted it here so it wouldnt get awashed in the score of partisian ship in other threads


i did create my a thread for it tho just now

and I LOVE political threads
Old 09-03-2004, 02:30 PM Kalibah is offline  
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#21  

Geotpf
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanVM
Holy crap, Dick Morris was right. He was predicting an 8-10 point bounce for Bush (and Kerry didn't get ANY bounce after his convention).

Kerry got about a two point bounce. We need to wait a few days before the actual bounce can be calculated. This poll did NOT take place before Bush's speech, for example. Also, Bush was on the upswing prior to the convention because of the SBVFT crap.
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:39 PM Geotpf is offline  
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#22  

Geotpf
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sk33
Dick Morris, like his politics or not, is right more often than not.

I agree. According to Dick Morris, if the polls are going 49 Bush, 45 Kerry, 6 Undecided on election day, Kerry wins. He says undecideds go 85% to the challenger during the re-election of an incumbent. Keep this in mind. In effect, a poll shows Kerry is winning if Kerry + 85% of undecided is more than Bush + 15% of undecided.

Taking that, and assuming Kerry also gets about half of what Nader is polling at (a reasonable assumption, especially this time around), this poll really shows Kerry behind by maybe four or five points, which is quite reasonable during the convention.
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Last edited by Geotpf; 09-03-2004 at 02:55 PM..
Old 09-03-2004, 02:46 PM Geotpf is offline  
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#23  

A Ho
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brouski
Don't forget, I've got all of your election prediction posts ready to throw back in your face after Bush wins!
i've got a bunch of those for other people for when kerry wins.
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Old 09-03-2004, 02:53 PM A Ho is offline  
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#24  

onigami
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Ho
i've got a bunch of those for other people for when kerry wins.
the fuck are you two going to do when nader wins?













Old 09-03-2004, 03:11 PM onigami is offline  
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#25  

Winkie
 
I would prefer Kerry to win but I just don't see it happening. He just seems I don't know like a shitty lier not saying bush isn't but Kerry just seems to rub me the long way. Go Deam or Nader.
Old 09-03-2004, 03:12 PM Winkie is offline  
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#26  

arthur pendragon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendetta
Youre surprised you see a surge during the RNC?

Wait until the debates...
Thats what Gore kept saying right up until the debates and Bush handed him his ass on a silver platter.....
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Old 09-03-2004, 03:56 PM arthur pendragon is offline  
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#27  

möbiustrip
 
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electionprojection.com is showing Bush ahead too. It's called the post-convention bounce and should be expected. Kerry's was diminished by his (predictable) engagement of the cunningly-timed swiftboat ads.

None of it will mean much once the debates begin, where presumably Kerry will sound like a horse's ass. I can say without an iota of prejudice the Republican Grooming team is really, really good at what they do--just look at the convention. Regardless of the truth on any issue, Kerry may be unable to answer direct questions while Bush will weave a magic spell of inspiring reassurance. These guys (the PR folks, not the candidates) know salesmanship.

However I didn't think anyone could suck worse at debate than Gore, and he pulled 50% of the vote anyway. Bush now has the advantage of a clear image to fill out, but the disadvantage of having his policy (which--sorry--is elitist, a quality for which Kerry is supposedly a foil) laid bare. If Bush wins this election it will be a triumph of marketing over memory.

It scares the hell out of me to know that hair, makeup, wardrobe, lighting, backdrop, and product placement people--coupled with a decent speechwriter and a spinsmith--can make a likeable yokel who spent forty years drunk an icon of power who commands unwavering loyalty from a third of the country. Did 9/11 affect us so deeply that routine words of comfort and a swift, televised (if incomplete) retribution forged infinite trust in the president--or did we just repeat our defiant mantras so often that we came to accept him? Do the 70% of Americans who thought Saddam was responsible now know better...or did they just stop caring?

I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because the president made "maybe" intelligence seem definite.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because the president conducted an invasion without provocation.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because we can't find some hundred thousand items of CBW.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because of major tax cuts to the richest 1% followed by massive federal expenditure.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because of Ashcroft's Patriot Act.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because Colin Powell nor Dick Cheney shrank into plausible deniability as an excuse for false statements on Saddam's WMD capability.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because the president wants to put homosexual policy in the constitution.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because the president thinks global warming is a myth.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because teachers reject NCLB.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because of unemployment.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because the president never heard of Abu Ghraib till he saw the scandal on the news.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because we need more stem cell lines.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because of the Partial Birth Act.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because faith-based groups drive our AIDS relief policy in Africa.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because of funding cuts to public libraries.
I'm not thinking of voting for Kerry because veterans' benefits have been cut.

All those issues have been on my mind for a long time, and I can't say for sure whether Kerry will fix any of them.

I'm thinking of voting for Kerry because the ruckus--from both the left AND the right--which surrounds every presidential decision has the character of deranged cultism. The smallest success or defeat of George W. Bush, whether he's given a speech or fallen off a Segway, produces an in-crowd euphoria that smugly does not care.

I'm (1) a strict constitutionalist first and foremost; this makes me socially liberal in spite of my personal religion. I'm (2) a fiscal conservative who realizes communism is a fairy tale but nonetheless believes welfare and public health are a "safety net" for good people in a moral society. To the extent this contradicts (1), it should be done locally. I'm (3) a capitalist who believes the market can find better solutions to (2) without creating pork barrels. While I wish (4) more people valued good work over easy money, there is a time for caveat emptor and a time for regulation. Only thoughtful pursuit of the best answer will decide which is which.

My thanks to the true "issuists" of the Pit. FYAD to the propaganda brigade. I just might vote for John Kerry to stop the propaganda war, sensational journalism, and wildfire of uninformed sloganry that has come into vogue since the president took office, perhaps through no fault of his own.

If you can't be bothered to read the above, this is me caring.
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Old 09-03-2004, 03:57 PM möbiustrip is offline  
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#28  

BlutStein
 
Seeing how Kerry lost points during his convention and Bush gained points right before his convention started, I'm not really surprize that Bush is gaining still more ground after his convention. I won't say Kerry is a complete loser cause I don't know the man personally but I believe its clear to everyone that he was not the best person for the democrats to pick to lead them to the white house.
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Old 09-03-2004, 04:31 PM BlutStein is offline  
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#29  

PiMpY
hmmmmmm whats that smell? *sniffs* ahhh smells like c0cktard. COMING FROM THIS POST!!
 
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Yea Bush is going to get his ass kicked in the debates just like in 2000!

HAHAAHAHHAAHA.
Old 09-03-2004, 04:56 PM PiMpY is offline  
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