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Zen0ps
 
Well, the US is importing about 13 million barrels of oil per day.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...N_mbblpd_a.htm

Which at $80 works out to be about $1 billion per day going to foreign countries, just for oil. Now the gross domestic production in the US is decent enough, but its net exports barely cover the $365 billion ($365 billion is a heck of a lot of shoes and beer) Each year is definitely a debt, and each year the entirety of the US grows its deficit by an incerasing amount. To put it in perspective, every man woman and child in the US pays $1000 each year (plus interest) on an ever increasing oil deficit. Its not even a monetary deficit, so if the US currency were to drop to zero, it will not mean that the US demand for oil will disappear. Its possible that someday Iran will stop accepting US currency for oil (especially if it keeps on a steady depreciation), as the barons have no need for paper and they have no obligation to help their country. IE: Its better for Iran to sell the oil to Japan for a shipload of Sony Playstations, than to the US for a dollar that every year is worth less and less.

Its hard to blame society though, I mean the vast majority of the people in the US have credit card debt (worst kind of debt) to homeowners debt (arguably the best kind of debt, if there ever is a good kind of debt) So why should the government act any differently?

The big fear is (at least outside of the US) is that when it comes time for the US to pay off its debt and deficit, that they will simply prefer to nuke anyone who tries to collect. In which case were all screwed. A more likely scenario is that the less stable oil producing countries will simply stop selling oil to the US, which would be catastrophic globally. OR: the shift of oil could go to other countries and global production may not suffer much at all.

Last edited by Zen0ps; 10-09-2007 at 09:53 PM..
Old 10-09-2007, 09:31 PM Zen0ps is offline  
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Malakai
 
If much of the world abandons the US dollar as the reserve currency, it would have a severely bad effect on our economy, likely worse than the great depression. We don't really manufacture too much here, we mainly buy with our currency from other nations. What if they stop accepting the dollar for goods we need sometime in the future?

Coincidentally enough, Saddam was in the process of exchanging all the money in the oil-for-food accounts from dollars to euro's and eating the exchange loss shortly before the war. Iran has been hinting they will follow suit for some time now.
Old 10-10-2007, 01:04 AM Malakai is offline  
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Malakai
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zen0ps View Post
Well, the US is importing about 13 million barrels of oil per day.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...N_mbblpd_a.htm

Which at $80 works out to be about $1 billion per day going to foreign countries, just for oil. Now the gross domestic production in the US is decent enough, but its net exports barely cover the $365 billion ($365 billion is a heck of a lot of shoes and beer) Each year is definitely a debt, and each year the entirety of the US grows its deficit by an incerasing amount. To put it in perspective, every man woman and child in the US pays $1000 each year (plus interest) on an ever increasing oil deficit. Its not even a monetary deficit, so if the US currency were to drop to zero, it will not mean that the US demand for oil will disappear. Its possible that someday Iran will stop accepting US currency for oil (especially if it keeps on a steady depreciation), as the barons have no need for paper and they have no obligation to help their country. IE: Its better for Iran to sell the oil to Japan for a shipload of Sony Playstations, than to the US for a dollar that every year is worth less and less.

Its hard to blame society though, I mean the vast majority of the people in the US have credit card debt (worst kind of debt) to homeowners debt (arguably the best kind of debt, if there ever is a good kind of debt) So why should the government act any differently?

The big fear is (at least outside of the US) is that when it comes time for the US to pay off its debt and deficit, that they will simply prefer to nuke anyone who tries to collect. In which case were all screwed. A more likely scenario is that the less stable oil producing countries will simply stop selling oil to the US, which would be catastrophic globally. OR: the shift of oil could go to other countries and global production may not suffer much at all.


Good post man, just a quick comment.
I would not blame the american people for their credit problems, as most kids have credit card offers in the mail the day they turn 18 or before, and are encouraged by banks and financial institutions and credit companies to borrow and spend, borrow and spend. Hell Visa/MC commercials practically sing that it's american to spend unwisely and borrow to the max. I've even seen credit company ad's implying that your clogging up lines at stores and such by paying cash instead of using credit!

To top it off, in 12-13 years of public education, you are never taught anything about monetary theory or credit. When you graduate your turned loose on a world of complicated financial systems and basically left to learn by trial and error, which usually ends up in maxed out credit card debt and working just to pay the interest. This also goes for buying cars with credit/loans, educational loans, and housing just as much. I know people who are still paying off loans with interest for cars they havent seen for years!

I'd blame the seemingly corrupt system a lot more than the (intentional?) poorly educated american populus. A lot of young people still think you can trade your paper money in for gold at the federal reserve! Most of the people I know, many who I go to college with, know nothing about how our monetary or lending/credit systems work. However more and more people are waking up to the fact that something is seriously wrong here...

Last edited by Malakai; 10-10-2007 at 01:20 AM..
Old 10-10-2007, 01:11 AM Malakai is offline  
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#18  

Escaped Gorilla Genitals
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zen0ps View Post
Well, the US is importing about 13 million barrels of oil per day.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...N_mbblpd_a.htm

Which at $80 works out to be about $1 billion per day going to foreign countries, just for oil. Now the gross domestic production in the US is decent enough, but its net exports barely cover the $365 billion ($365 billion is a heck of a lot of shoes and beer) Each year is definitely a debt, and each year the entirety of the US grows its deficit by an incerasing amount. To put it in perspective, every man woman and child in the US pays $1000 each year (plus interest) on an ever increasing oil deficit. Its not even a monetary deficit, so if the US currency were to drop to zero, it will not mean that the US demand for oil will disappear. Its possible that someday Iran will stop accepting US currency for oil (especially if it keeps on a steady depreciation), as the barons have no need for paper and they have no obligation to help their country. IE: Its better for Iran to sell the oil to Japan for a shipload of Sony Playstations, than to the US for a dollar that every year is worth less and less.
Its hard to blame society though, I mean the vast majority of the people in the US have credit card debt (worst kind of debt) to homeowners debt (arguably the best kind of debt, if there ever is a good kind of debt) So why should the government act any differently?
What does the government have to do with the US importing more than it exports?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zen0ps View Post
The big fear is (at least outside of the US) is that when it comes time for the US to pay off its debt and deficit, that they will simply prefer to nuke anyone who tries to collect. In which case were all screwed.
lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zen0ps View Post
A more likely scenario is that the less stable oil producing countries will simply stop selling oil to the US, which would be catastrophic globally. OR: the shift of oil could go to other countries and global production may not suffer much at all.
Countries will continue selling oil to the US as long as we can pay.
Old 10-10-2007, 12:21 PM Escaped Gorilla Genitals is offline  
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#19  

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It is international trade that is DESTROYING our economy. (plus placing us at risk of terrorism.)

You are an idiot.
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Old 10-10-2007, 01:00 PM Frock is offline  
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#20  

acknot
 
There are probably a lot of colluding reasons why the dollar is continuing its decline. Oil price is very high, theres the whole housing and credit bust and then theres the trade imbalance - but whichever way you see it, the huge deficit to offset the cost of your war effort is causing serious damage.

One thing is the actual value, another is the rise in negative attitudes towards the US.
For instance, my countrys public pension fund (~$300Bn) holds less USD than ever, and moving assets to London Stock Exchange. Which incidentially is the worlds largest now. If the predominantly asian nations currently heavily into US bonds were to reduce their investment, things could turn bad quickly.

Many businesses over here (some of those very large) that get paid in USD are struggling because the USD vs Euro ratio is falling so rapidly, and in turn, USD is regarded as "dirty" or risky currency. Nobody wants to hold USD because it falls and theres little faith it will stop falling.

On the upside, I just bought Team Fortress 2 at $25; which is close to what I paid for Wired magazine and a double capuccino at lunchtime today. So it's not all gloomy
Old 10-10-2007, 02:15 PM acknot is offline  
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#21  

Xayd
 
there's not, there's about 2 or 3 reasons.

a) foreign investors are pulling out of our investment funds when they realize that those 20% returns weren't from stock market geniuses, but from buying up shitty countrywide mortgages.

b) the fed reacted to this loss of faith in shady mortgage packages by lowering our interest rates even further (stupidly), which also drives people out of interest based securities.

it's really very simple. when foreign investors are coming in, they're buying US notes and driving the value of the dollar up. when they pull out due to the rates being too low or our investments being unstable, the demand for the same US notes falls because there's more supply.
Old 10-10-2007, 05:21 PM Xayd is offline  
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#22  

Malakai
 
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Well, I guess Ron Paul has offcially conceded defeat if he is giving interviews to Alex jones/prisonplanet. I do like the part at the end where he say that other candidates are being forced to take constitutionalist stances now.

Ron Paul doesn't refuse to go on media shows and get free converage of his ideals because he doesn't agree with every one of the host's opinions. Like he says, in that case he probably couldn't appear anywhere!
Whatever you may think a lot of people listen to Alex Jones, even listen to rebroadcasts of them online. His youtube video's are immensely popular. Why would RP turn away free advertising? Furthermore Ron believes in free speech like few others. People like Alex Jones who believe in constitutional government are his original fan club, no matter what they think about 9/11.

I myself don't believing that 9/11 was straight up government sponsored terrorism, I do believe however that there was both massive ineptitude and that after the fact it was used as propoganda to scare up the people in preparation for policies that were waiting to be dropped on us for quiet a while before. The 9/11 commission report left a lot of questions unanswered.

If you think someones opinions are worthless because they happen to believe there are unanswered questions about 9/11, you will be ignoring a lot of people. Even big media polling usually shows a large % of americans think this. This goes for many abroad as well.

Last edited by Malakai; 10-11-2007 at 12:50 AM..
Old 10-11-2007, 12:45 AM Malakai is offline  
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#23  

ry_goody
 
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Originally Posted by Xayd View Post
even on the million to one chance he gets elected, no, he will change zero.

if you believe him buy gold with your money and prove us all wrong when you get rich at our expense.

oh wait, you people who preach doom and gloom and jump on the bandwagon for the return to wild west style banking don't have any money. amazing coincidence, isn't it?

it is an amazing coincidence

i have thought about that regularly ever since I came in contact with people who have changed to the bartering system

I can only conclude causality doesnt exist and everything is associative
Im serious. Apply an associate model to the functions of the universe and even down to physics. it all makes more sense.
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:23 AM ry_goody is offline  
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ry_goody
 
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Good post man, just a quick comment.
I would not blame the american people for their credit problems, as most kids have credit card offers in the mail the day they turn 18 or before, and are encouraged by banks and financial institutions and credit companies to borrow and spend, borrow and spend. Hell Visa/MC commercials practically sing that it's american to spend unwisely and borrow to the max. I've even seen credit company ad's implying that your clogging up lines at stores and such by paying cash instead of using credit!

To top it off, in 12-13 years of public education, you are never taught anything about monetary theory or credit. When you graduate your turned loose on a world of complicated financial systems and basically left to learn by trial and error, which usually ends up in maxed out credit card debt and working just to pay the interest. This also goes for buying cars with credit/loans, educational loans, and housing just as much. I know people who are still paying off loans with interest for cars they havent seen for years!

I'd blame the seemingly corrupt system a lot more than the (intentional?) poorly educated american populus. A lot of young people still think you can trade your paper money in for gold at the federal reserve! Most of the people I know, many who I go to college with, know nothing about how our monetary or lending/credit systems work. However more and more people are waking up to the fact that something is seriously wrong here...

ignorance is not an excuse
sad. but not an excuse
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:28 AM ry_goody is offline  
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Slacker
 
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A weak dollar isn't necessarily bad for the economy. Imports cost more so more Americans will buy domestic, exports are cheaper so our trade deficit will decrease as more people buy our goods.

China is forced to keep buying dollars as long as they keep the yuan pegged to the dollar. If they let it float free then the price of their goods will rise which will once again, lower our trade deficit because some things won't be worth buying from China.

The idea of the dollar dropping to zero is pretty damned unlikely. It's falling against other currencies but inflation is still low, your average consumer doesn't have to worry too much about eroding purchasing power unless they buy a whole lot of imported goods.
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:28 AM Slacker is offline  
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cromicus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ry_goody View Post
it is an amazing coincidence

i have thought about that regularly ever since I came in contact with people who have changed to the bartering system

I can only conclude causality doesnt exist and everything is associative
Im serious. Apply an associate model to the functions of the universe and even down to physics. it all makes more sense.
what are you even talking about...
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:30 AM cromicus is offline  
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ry_goody
 
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Originally Posted by Jim Morrison View Post
What does the government have to do with the US importing more than it exports?


lol

Countries will continue selling oil to the US as long as we can pay.

hopefully
but can hope save us?

you know I made this thread looking for more reasoning than 'lolz us are good, whatever man'
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:30 AM ry_goody is offline  
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ry_goody
 
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what are you even talking about...

wouldnt you like to know
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Old 10-11-2007, 07:30 AM ry_goody is offline  
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ry_goody
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xayd View Post
even on the million to one chance he gets elected, no, he will change zero.

if you believe him buy gold with your money and prove us all wrong when you get rich at our expense.

oh wait, you people who preach doom and gloom and jump on the bandwagon for the return to wild west style banking don't have any money. amazing coincidence, isn't it?

i think it might be more valuable to buy pure crystallized DMT, psilocin or LSD

such will certainly be in demand in an apolcalyptic world and hard to come by.. even more so than gold

maybe not psilocin actually
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