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TheMorlock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger_sly View Post
I'm surprised it hasn't infected any human in India yet, given their population.

even major diseases have problems surviving in that cesspool
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http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=572323
Old 08-15-2007, 10:48 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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curdledvomit
 
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this from... http://www.reuters.com/article/scien...29220820070829


Study confirms 2006 human-human spread of bird flu

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:09PM EDT






WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A mathematical analysis has confirmed that H5N1 avian influenza spread from person to person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.
They said they had developed a tool to run quick tests on disease outbreaks to see if dangerous epidemics or pandemics may be developing.
Health officials around the world agree that a pandemic of influenza is overdue, and they are most worried by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza that has been spreading through flocks from Asia to Africa.
It rarely passes to humans, but since 2003 it has infected 322 people and killed 195 of them.
Most have been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have been seen and officials worry most about the possibility that the virus has acquired the ability to pass easily and directly from one person to another. That would spark a pandemic.
Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in 2006, and another in Turkey in which eight people were infected and four died.
Experts were almost certain the Sumatra case was human-to-human transmission, but were eager to see more proof.
"We find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission in Sumatra, but not in Turkey," they wrote in a report published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
"This does not mean that no low-level human-to-human spread occurred in this outbreak, only that we lack statistical evidence of such spread."
In Sumatra, one of Indonesia's islands, a 37-year-old woman appears to have infected her 10-year-old nephew, who infected his father. DNA tests confirmed that the strain the father died of was very similar to the virus found in the boy's body.

"It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control," Longini said in a statement.
"The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time, we might not be so lucky," he added.
The researchers estimated the secondary-attack rate, which is the risk that one person will infect another, was 20 percent. This is similar to what is seen for regular, seasonal influenza A in the United States.
The researchers developed a software product called TranStat and said they would provide it free of charge on the National Institutes of Health's Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, or MIDAS, Web site.
"We know the key to preventing a pandemic is early detection, containment and mitigation with antiviral therapy and this tool will enable those on the front lines, such as physicians, epidemiologists and other public-health officials, to carry that out efficiently," said Elizabeth Halloran, who worked on the study.
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Old 08-29-2007, 11:54 AM curdledvomit is offline  
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SickSociety
 
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Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
even major diseases have problems surviving in that cesspool :D

Don't worry about contracting the virus then- it definitely wouldn't survive once it hit your shit-filled brain.

Sorry. I'm just getting sick of reading your stupid-ass bullshit posts.
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Old 08-29-2007, 03:01 PM SickSociety is offline  
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TheMorlock
Contrary to my previous title I never fucked Inf's mother
 
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Don't worry about contracting the virus then- it definitely wouldn't survive once it hit your shit-filled brain.

Sorry. I'm just getting sick of reading your stupid-ass posts.



want a tampon?
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http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=572323
Old 08-30-2007, 12:26 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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#979  

TheMorlock
Contrary to my previous title I never fucked Inf's mother
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curdledvomit View Post
this from... http://www.reuters.com/article/scien...29220820070829


Study confirms 2006 human-human spread of bird flu

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:09PM EDT






WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A mathematical analysis has confirmed that H5N1 avian influenza spread from person to person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.
They said they had developed a tool to run quick tests on disease outbreaks to see if dangerous epidemics or pandemics may be developing.
Health officials around the world agree that a pandemic of influenza is overdue, and they are most worried by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza that has been spreading through flocks from Asia to Africa.
It rarely passes to humans, but since 2003 it has infected 322 people and killed 195 of them.
Most have been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have been seen and officials worry most about the possibility that the virus has acquired the ability to pass easily and directly from one person to another. That would spark a pandemic.
Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in 2006, and another in Turkey in which eight people were infected and four died.
Experts were almost certain the Sumatra case was human-to-human transmission, but were eager to see more proof.
"We find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission in Sumatra, but not in Turkey," they wrote in a report published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
"This does not mean that no low-level human-to-human spread occurred in this outbreak, only that we lack statistical evidence of such spread."
In Sumatra, one of Indonesia's islands, a 37-year-old woman appears to have infected her 10-year-old nephew, who infected his father. DNA tests confirmed that the strain the father died of was very similar to the virus found in the boy's body.

"It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control," Longini said in a statement.
"The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time, we might not be so lucky," he added.
The researchers estimated the secondary-attack rate, which is the risk that one person will infect another, was 20 percent. This is similar to what is seen for regular, seasonal influenza A in the United States.
The researchers developed a software product called TranStat and said they would provide it free of charge on the National Institutes of Health's Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, or MIDAS, Web site.
"We know the key to preventing a pandemic is early detection, containment and mitigation with antiviral therapy and this tool will enable those on the front lines, such as physicians, epidemiologists and other public-health officials, to carry that out efficiently," said Elizabeth Halloran, who worked on the study.


I have doubts
__________________
There is nothing to worry about. Legions of wise people with nothing but all of best interests at heart are ensuring our future of love and infinite bliss. Go watch TV :Bflaps
http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=572323
Old 08-30-2007, 12:27 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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curdledvomit
 
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this from ... http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...6-hpgtqMJymq4A


Russia finds H5N1 bird flu virus at chicken farm

8 hours ago
MOSCOW (AFP) A strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus that is dangerous for humans has surfaced at chicken farm in southern Russia, the veterinary service said on Tuesday.
"The H5N1 bird flu virus type A has been registered" at the farm in the village of Razdolnoye in Krasnodar region, it said in a statement.
A total of 400 chickens have died at the farm and 414 have been put down, the service said, adding that a quarantine had been imposed.
A spokesman for the veterinary service told AFP it was "unlikely" that the chicken meat had reached local markets as preventive measures were taken "very quickly" after the virus was suspected.
The highly pathogenic strain of the H5N1 virus detected at Razdolnoye is potentially dangerous for humans. Experts have warned that the virus could mutate into a strain that can be transmitted between humans.
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how about a nice hot steaming bowl of STFU!

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Old 09-04-2007, 05:20 PM curdledvomit is offline  
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#981  

curdledvomit
 
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The Science Channel to air special on H5N1

I was just watching the Science Channel and they are going to air a special in October on the coming bird flu pandemic...

http://science.discovery.com/tv-sche...5158.25405.0.0

should be interesting.
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how about a nice hot steaming bowl of STFU!

00110001 00110011 01101011 and damn proud of it!

Squid posted..."curdledvomit is the first +10k guy i actually care about"

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Old 09-27-2007, 04:13 PM curdledvomit is offline  
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That German Guy
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Um... lulz?

This "upcoming pandemic" is more media scare than anything else. Casualties will be below 1918/19, even with the increased population nowadays. The only places that will get hit hard are, in order of severity:

SE Asia
Africa
Middle East
South America
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Old 10-01-2007, 04:45 AM That German Guy is offline  
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Badger_sly
 
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Um... lulz?

This "upcoming pandemic" is more media scare than anything else. Casualties will be below 1918/19, even with the increased population nowadays. The only places that will get hit hard are, in order of severity:

SE Asia
Africa
Middle East
South America
Wrong.

With H5N1's 60% mortality rate, when it decides to mutate (not if, but when) to human-human infectivity similar to other influenza types, it will be much more than just a "media scare".
Old 10-01-2007, 01:33 PM Badger_sly is offline  
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That German Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger_sly View Post
Wrong.

With H5N1's 60% mortality rate, when it decides to mutate (not if, but when) to human-human infectivity similar to other influenza types, it will be much more than just a "media scare".

A 60% mortality rate contagion, with very definite symptoms, high transmission speed and fast symptom progression would be a lot easier to contain than many others, even those discussed as bioweapons. It cannot "linger" in any area for long, thus, by strictly controlling travel through isolating outbreak areas, it's spread can be delayed significantly, if not halted altogether.

International travel, especially by air, is a problem, but quarantines could be implemented, as the infected show symptoms rather quickly, they needn't stay long. Two days at the outside.

The mortality rate is also questionable: Most of the cases were either index or second generation. The index cases were subjected to megadoses of virii through their contact with infected birds. Even smallpox can knock you dead in a day from a huge dose. The second-generation cases were mostly close friends and family of those infected, who either worked alongside them in the same contagious environment, or were routineley exposed to it at some point during the day.
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Old 10-02-2007, 01:59 AM That German Guy is offline  
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TheMorlock
Contrary to my previous title I never fucked Inf's mother
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by That German Guy View Post
A 60% mortality rate contagion, with very definite symptoms, high transmission speed and fast symptom progression would be a lot easier to contain than many others, even those discussed as bioweapons. It cannot "linger" in any area for long, thus, by strictly controlling travel through isolating outbreak areas, it's spread can be delayed significantly, if not halted altogether.

International travel, especially by air, is a problem, but quarantines could be implemented, as the infected show symptoms rather quickly, they needn't stay long. Two days at the outside.

The mortality rate is also questionable: Most of the cases were either index or second generation. The index cases were subjected to megadoses of virii through their contact with infected birds. Even smallpox can knock you dead in a day from a huge dose. The second-generation cases were mostly close friends and family of those infected, who either worked alongside them in the same contagious environment, or were routineley exposed to it at some point during the day.


But it will likely be a last step mutation. Which means a good likelyhood of simultaneous outbreaks over widespread areas.

Plus if the human to human strain is still viable and possibly less lethal in birds they will be spreading it.
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There is nothing to worry about. Legions of wise people with nothing but all of best interests at heart are ensuring our future of love and infinite bliss. Go watch TV :Bflaps
http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=572323
Old 10-02-2007, 07:24 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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That German Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
But it will likely be a last step mutation. Which means a good likelihood of simultaneous outbreaks over widespread areas.

Plus if the human to human strain is still viable and possibly less lethal in birds they will be spreading it.

I didn't see that last one in The Book... I'll pass it on. You are either very smart, or very stupid in thinking that.

Simultaneous outbreaks are an interesting concept, but with the probably very fast spread of a strong influenza virus, especially in suboptimal hygienic conditions, it probably won't matter that much. Since a large area of these conditions is colocated with the world's largest bird farms, which are known reservoirs of the bird flu, any last-step mutations would have to occur at most a month from another to be distinguishable from the outbreak profile alone. Genetically, there might be some difference.
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Old 10-02-2007, 07:53 AM That German Guy is offline  
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Badger_sly
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by That German Guy View Post
A 60% mortality rate contagion, with very definite symptoms, high transmission speed and fast symptom progression would be a lot easier to contain than many others, even those discussed as bioweapons. It cannot "linger" in any area for long, thus, by strictly controlling travel through isolating outbreak areas, it's spread can be delayed significantly, if not halted altogether.

International travel, especially by air, is a problem, but quarantines could be implemented, as the infected show symptoms rather quickly, they needn't stay long. Two days at the outside.

The mortality rate is also questionable: Most of the cases were either index or second generation. The index cases were subjected to megadoses of virii through their contact with infected birds. Even smallpox can knock you dead in a day from a huge dose. The second-generation cases were mostly close friends and family of those infected, who either worked alongside them in the same contagious environment, or were routineley exposed to it at some point during the day.
I'm not saying it wouldn't be mostly contained in time. My point is it's not a media scare, it's quite possible, and that a 60% mortality rate with a contagion like the common flu would initially be very devestating. Luckily they've seen it coming and are working on vaccines. And, luckily it's stayed lower respiratory.

Also, another great fear of H5N1 is that it could possibly spread via migratory birds, since it's been discovered in geese and ducks already.

Last edited by Badger_sly; 10-02-2007 at 09:31 AM..
Old 10-02-2007, 09:27 AM Badger_sly is offline  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger_sly View Post
I'm not saying it wouldn't be mostly contained in time. My point is it's not a media scare, it's quite possible, and that a 60% mortality rate with a contagion like the common flu would initially be very devestating. Luckily they've seen it coming and are working on vaccines. And, luckily it's stayed lower respiratory.

Also, another great fear of H5N1 is that it could possibly spread via migratory birds, since it's been discovered in geese and ducks already.

Curse you! You jinxed it!

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...3-healthNews-2

Quote:
Bird flu virus mutating into human-unfriendly form
Thu Oct 4, 2007 8:10pm ET136

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The H5N1 bird flu virus has mutated to infect people more easily, although it still has not transformed into a pandemic strain, researchers said on Thursday.

The changes are worrying, said Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"We have identified a specific change that could make bird flu grow in the upper respiratory tract of humans," said Kawaoka, who led the study.

"The viruses that are circulating in Africa and Europe are the ones closest to becoming a human virus," Kawaoka said.

Recent samples of virus taken from birds in Africa and Europe all carry the mutation, Kawaoka and colleagues report in the Public Library of Science journal PLoS Pathogens.

"I don't like to scare the public, because they cannot do very much. But at the same time it is important to the scientific community to understand what is happening," Kawaoka said in a telephone interview.

The H5N1 avian flu virus, which mostly infects birds, has since 2003 infected 329 people in 12 countries, killing 201 of them. It very rarely passes from one person to another, but if it acquires the ability to do so easily, it likely will cause a global epidemic.

All flu viruses evolve constantly and scientists have some ideas about what mutations are needed to change a virus from one that infects birds easily to one more comfortable in humans.

Birds usually have a body temperature of 106 degrees F, and humans are 98.6 degrees F usually. The human nose and throat, where flu viruses usually enter, is usually around 91.4 degrees F.

"So usually the bird flu doesn't grow well in the nose or throat of humans," Kawaoka said. This particular mutation allows H5N1 to live well in the cooler temperatures of the human upper respiratory tract.

H5N1 caused its first mass die-off among wild waterfowl in 2005 at Qinghai Lake in central China, where hundreds of thousands of migratory birds congregate.

That strain of the virus was carried across Asia to Africa and Europe by migrating birds. Its descendants carry the mutation, Kawaoka said.

"So the viruses circulating in Europe and Africa, they all have this mutation. So they are the ones that are closer to human-like flu," Kawaoka said.

Luckily, they do not carry other mutations, he said.

"Clearly there are more mutations that are needed. We don't know how many mutations are needed for them to become pandemic strains."

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Old 10-05-2007, 08:55 AM Renork is offline  
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Badger_sly
 
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I just read this in the news and thought of this thread. You beat me to it though. Dr. Kawaoka (Yoshi) is my contact's boss.

And this is when the H5N1 virus gets significantly more scary because it may become easily transmittable through coughing, like tuberculosis.
Old 10-05-2007, 10:13 AM Badger_sly is offline  
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