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TheMorlock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joemama View Post
Tell me again why I should be in a panic about a disease that has killed less than 300 people worldwide and is mostly confined to 3rd world countries? In 2008 alone...over 31,000 people were killed in auto accidents just in the continental US, yet nobody is calling that a pandemic..

because it is inevitable that someday a crossover disease will come along that will be a pandemic.

If we are lucky we will have advanced far enough to handle it. But our present population and ease of travel and limited medical ability to affect certain disease organisms means that it is likely to happen sooner rather than later and H5N1 is the most likely candidate as it appears to be close to a full crossover. If it has the lethality and the infection rate of the previous pandemic it will hit every major city in the world in a day once it hits any city with train or even limited air travel.

The panic so far has lessened non compliance in countries that tried to hide or ignore the infection status of their fowl. Which lessens the risk.
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Old 02-03-2009, 01:06 PM TheMorlock is offline  
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lol I was so fucking drunk that night
Old 02-03-2009, 05:20 PM ElectribeCyanide is offline  
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Renork
 
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Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
because it is inevitable that someday a crossover disease will come along that will be a pandemic.

If we are lucky we will have advanced far enough to handle it. But our present population and ease of travel and limited medical ability to affect certain disease organisms means that it is likely to happen sooner rather than later and H5N1 is the most likely candidate as it appears to be close to a full crossover. If it has the lethality and the infection rate of the previous pandemic it will hit every major city in the world in a day once it hits any city with train or even limited air travel.

The panic so far has lessened non compliance in countries that tried to hide or ignore the infection status of their fowl. Which lessens the risk.

For the life of me I can not understand why so many people seem to have a hard time understanding the importance of paying attention for a potentially globally devastating event that is inevitable given enough time.
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Old 02-04-2009, 09:28 AM Renork is offline  
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joemama
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
because it is inevitable that someday a crossover disease will come along that will be a pandemic.

If we are lucky we will have advanced far enough to handle it. But our present population and ease of travel and limited medical ability to affect certain disease organisms means that it is likely to happen sooner rather than later and H5N1 is the most likely candidate as it appears to be close to a full crossover. If it has the lethality and the infection rate of the previous pandemic it will hit every major city in the world in a day once it hits any city with train or even limited air travel.

The panic so far has lessened non compliance in countries that tried to hide or ignore the infection status of their fowl. Which lessens the risk.
What I mean is...how is the Avian Flu more dangerous and a bigger threat than say Ebola, Hanta etc.. or even particularly nasty strains of Influenza that kill many people every year than all of those combined? I guess it has something to do with birds being so mobile and far ranging but I'm not sure..
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Old 02-04-2009, 09:49 AM joemama is offline  
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TheMorlock
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Quote:
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What I mean is...how is the Avian Flu more dangerous and a bigger threat than say Ebola, Hanta etc.. or even particularly nasty strains of Influenza that kill many people every year than all of those combined? I guess it has something to do with birds being so mobile and far ranging but I'm not sure..

Normal flu that affects human beings rests in the lower lungs and is mostly harmless if you keep yourself in shape during the illness and are otherwise healthy. The people the "nasty strains" kills are in the high risk groups due to old age/infant and the immune deficient. H5N1 crossover is expected by some to take out over 10% of infected prime of life healthy individuals that are diagnosed AND treated with current meds in developed countries. Until a specific flu vaccination for the emergent strain and its sub strains is cultured.

The bird to human crossover infection appears to be far deadlier than the 1918 one which had a 2.5% mortality rate compared to normal flu epidemics that had until then a .1% mortality rate according to this site. If the full crossover retains the virulence of the bird to human one then all third world countries will be just about wiped out. With mortality rates speculated by some to be in the > 80% range.

Currently 60% of people confirmed to have the pre crossover strain have died.

http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/


The H5N1 strain is partially upper respiratory at the moment and is expected to be a full upper respiratory infection once it crosses over to human to human transmission. This flu strain will cause upper lung hemorrhaging which will Directly cause fatalities and as blood is coughed up containing a safe medium(for the virus) to live longer out of the body it becomes more infectious. I am sure there are other mechanisms involved in it's transmission ability.

Due to it being a flu variant with a just long enough incubation period it will not be diagnosed till 10's of thousands of people are already carriers.

The previous flu pandemic has been shown to be an H5 variant showing that this strain type does indeed cross over to a deadly highly infectious strain.

Ebola and Hanta while being very disturbing to see does not transfer so well except in worst case scenarios like third world countries and has a rapid onset which is easily diagnosed. We have Hanta virus all over the south west in pest species.

Part of why it's a problem is that because it is an avian flu the precursor strain that keeps trying to cross over gets spread over the entire world.
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Last edited by TheMorlock; 02-04-2009 at 10:46 AM..
Old 02-04-2009, 10:34 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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TheMorlock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renork View Post
For the life of me I can not understand why so many people seem to have a hard time understanding the importance of paying attention for a potentially globally devastating event that is inevitable given enough time.

Because they cant blame it on Bush or Obama it's not sexy enough to stay in the news. And most of the idiots today get their opinion directly fed to them. It's more important to them that an Olympic athlete got caught doing a bong hit and is therefore just as good as a terrorist.
Or that a college professor that is constantly spewing hate speech and teaching altered history is being "DENIED HIS FIRST AMENDMENT RIGHTS TO FREE SPEECH" by being canned. But thats a couple different threads
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Old 02-04-2009, 10:53 AM TheMorlock is offline  
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bingstudent
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Bird flu is the next Spanish flu. If you read the scientific reports, the magnitude of the threat quickly emerges.

That doesn't stop the media from covering it up to prevent panic, though.

The conditions that made Spanish Flu possible don't really exist today. There was a huge number of people in trenches, hospitals, trains and ships being moved all over Europe which were incubation zones for disease. Those were unique conditions that made it easy for the deadly bug to learn to move among people. Even if a superbug does emerge the world is very different today than it was in 1918. Today people are healthier and better nourished in general, medical treatment has seen huge improvements. Remember that in 1918 penicillin had yet to even be discovered yet and scientists didn't even understand what a virus was.

So really, stop panicking. If a new flu turns out to be catastrophic, it's not like there's anything you can do to stop it now anyway.
Old 02-04-2009, 11:19 AM bingstudent is offline  
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TheMorlock
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TODAY with the latest greatest medicine the H5N1 strain has a 60% mortality rate when all resources could be used for individual cases. And the cesspool countries are just a plane trip or rail trip from major international cities.

The world is Very different. we have a million times the mobility country to country than there was in 1918


are you an idiot in every thread you post in bing?
That was a rhetorical question
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Old 02-04-2009, 12:24 PM TheMorlock is offline  
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bingstudent
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Typical of your posts, ignoring the bulk of what's been typed in order to hammer on an irrelevant point.

That 60 percent mortality rate is taking place IN THOSE cesspool countries where H5N1's emergence is so likely. So no, all resources have not been used for those individual cases. The differences in public health and services in SE Asia and North America or Europe are huge. Plus there's already pre-pandemic vaccines that have had success at combating H5N1 and there are many more on the way.

What made the 1918 outbreak so unique was that it was cultivated for so long during the war and in the aftermath of the war Europeans were so weak that the flu ravaged the continent. A pandemic of that magnitude is impossible today given the modern health infrastructure and advanced global disease surveillance.
Old 02-04-2009, 01:23 PM bingstudent is offline  
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Typical of your posts, ignoring the bulk of what's been typed in order to hammer on an irrelevant point.

That 60 percent mortality rate is taking place IN THOSE cesspool countries where H5N1's emergence is so likely. So no, all resources have not been used for those individual cases. The differences in public health and services in SE Asia and North America or Europe are huge. Plus there's already pre-pandemic vaccines that have had success at combating H5N1 and there are many more on the way.

What made the 1918 outbreak so unique was that it was cultivated for so long during the war and in the aftermath of the war Europeans were so weak that the flu ravaged the continent. A pandemic of that magnitude is impossible today given the modern health infrastructure and advanced global disease surveillance.


And at what estimated mortality rate does it make sense to start ignoring the possibility of an outbreak? More than half the worlds population lives in cities now even at a modest mortality rate closer to that of the 1918 outbreak if something were to hit a major city all major cities would have it before any intervention would even begin to be attempted. While the death of a couple hundred million people is likely a good thing over all its not going to be a fun couple of months/years.
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Old 02-04-2009, 02:20 PM Renork is offline  
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TheMorlock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bingstudent View Post
Typical of your posts, ignoring the bulk of what's been typed in order to hammer on an irrelevant point.

That 60 percent mortality rate is taking place IN THOSE cesspool countries where H5N1's emergence is so likely. So no, all resources have not been used for those individual cases. The differences in public health and services in SE Asia and North America or Europe are huge. Plus there's already pre-pandemic vaccines that have had success at combating H5N1 and there are many more on the way.

What made the 1918 outbreak so unique was that it was cultivated for so long during the war and in the aftermath of the war Europeans were so weak that the flu ravaged the continent. A pandemic of that magnitude is impossible today given the modern health infrastructure and advanced global disease surveillance.


awwww shithead said what? That it's typical of my posts to pick out your most hilarious and kick the legs out from under you entire post because your tripod of needs at least three legs to stand on?

I guess you are too stupid to be aware that major governments sent in experts to study and treat those infected.

what does entire groups of people that never left the US dropping like flies have to do with weak Europeans?

the reasons your posts state why it spread are the those stated by GASP the same people that did not know what penicillin was. (why you mentioned an antibiotic in a virus thread is interesting)

AND there is no more likelyhood of the crossover happening in the cesspool countries than any other country with birds. the virus is panzootic in the avian population and has extended to non avian species as well. The cesspool comment I made was to emphasize that even if it crosses over in the armpit of the world that it will still be spread worldwide, because those cesspool countries have MORE MOBILITY than 1st world countries in 1918 had

You simply do not have the mental ability to have even the slightest grasp beyond OOOOhhhhh Shiny in any subject you think you are qualified to talk about.

Was that a broad enough spectrum smackdown of your idiocy this time?

Thanks for making my point for me about you being an idiot in every thread you post in.
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Last edited by TheMorlock; 02-04-2009 at 04:44 PM..
Old 02-04-2009, 04:12 PM TheMorlock is offline  
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bingstudent
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I guess you are too stupid to be aware that major governments sent in experts to study and treat those infected.

Fabricating again I see.

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Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
what does entire groups of people that never left the US dropping like flies have to do with weak Europeans?

Maybe it's because Spanish Flu originated in the US.

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Originally Posted by TheMorlock View Post
the reasons your posts state why it spread are the those stated by GASP the same people that did not know what penicillin was. (why you mentioned an antibiotic in a virus thread is interesting)

If you could read you'd see the reason I posted for why Spanish Flu spread globally is because it grew more dangerous in the crowded trenches and wards in Europe then left the war to return home, all over the world.

I pointed out the lack of penicillin to display how basic medical science was at the time. The more relevant point, which you conveniently ignore, is that we did not even know what a virus was at the time. You can see why that would make it difficult to assess and treat a pandemic, I'm sure. Do you really think today's medical establishment would have as much difficulty as existed in 1918?

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AND there is no more likelyhood of the crossover happening in the cesspool countries than any other country with birds. the virus is panzootic in the avian population and has extended to non avian species as well.

For starters, it is far more likely to crossover in the cesspool countries because that's where most rain forest clear cutting occurs and it's also far more likely for people to live in close contact with poultry and other animals in cesspool countries.

As a follow up, there's already vaccines that have prevented the spread of H5N1 in farm birds and many more in the pipelines.

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The cesspool comment I made was to emphasize that even if it crosses over in the armpit of the world that it will still be spread worldwide, because those cesspool countries have MORE MOBILITY than 1st world countries in 1918 had

Spanish Flu was literally global, it existed on every inhabited continent and in nearly every corner of the globe. So either your argument about mobility is pointless since the lack of mobility in the early 20th century did not inhibit global pandemics, or you're overestimating how much more mobile society is today than back then. I think it's probably the latter, considering the victims of H5N1 have so far been poor fucks mostly in SE Asia that lack the ability to benefit from global transportation. Yes it's true that the world is more connected today but it's also true that there's more barriers that prevent society's dregs from benefiting from those connections.

Furthermore, global disease monitoring is highly advanced today and did not even exist during the Spanish Flu pandemic. Face it, your fear of a super dangerous global pandemic is silly. There's no reason to believe the spread will be any worse than SARS which was successfully contained with ease.

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You simply do not have the mental ability to have even the slightest grasp beyond OOOOhhhhh Shiny in any subject you think you are qualified to talk about.

I'm pretty sure you're the last idiot left on earth that believes the bulk of global climate change isn't anthropogenic, yet you babble about qualifications?
Old 02-04-2009, 07:35 PM bingstudent is offline  
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bingstudent
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And at what estimated mortality rate does it make sense to start ignoring the possibility of an outbreak?

I'm not suggesting we ignore the possibility of an outbreak. I do think panic, and especially comparisons to 1918 are unwarranted given the differences in disease monitoring and medical science.

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More than half the worlds population lives in cities now even at a modest mortality rate closer to that of the 1918 outbreak if something were to hit a major city all major cities would have it before any intervention would even begin to be attempted.

I don't see why all major cities would have it before any intervention could begin - like I've pointed out above, there's already successful vaccines that state and local governments keep on hand to distribute and disease monitoring is highly perfected, especially in highly-developed parts of the world.

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While the death of a couple hundred million people is likely a good thing over all its not going to be a fun couple of months/years.

A couple hundred million people? Come on, like I said above, I'm not for ignoring the risk of a pandemic but when you start throwing around numbers like that (even higher than the worst official estimates) you really lose credibility. What happened to Mad Cow? What happened to SARS? Let's get real here, the threat of the next global pandemic is always going to be pushed on us by the news and scientists, sometimes out of legitimate concern, mostly out of the profit motive.
Old 02-04-2009, 07:51 PM bingstudent is offline  
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TheMorlock
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Quote:
Originally Posted by complete fucking idiot
Fabricating again I see.



If you could read you'd see the reason I posted for why Spanish Flu spread globally is because it grew more dangerous in the crowded trenches and wards in Europe then left the war to return home, all over the world.

I pointed out the lack of penicillin to display how basic medical science was at the time. The more relevant point, which you conveniently ignore, is that we did not even know what a virus was at the time. You can see why that would make it difficult to assess and treat a pandemic, I'm sure. Do you really think today's medical establishment would have as much difficulty as existed in 1918?


:

Quote:

This study, which appears in the October issue of Nature Medicine, was led by an Oxford research team in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and compared 18 people with the A(H5N1) avian flu in 2004 and 2005 to 8 people infected with seasonal human flus.



....

But in the study 17 of the 18 patients received the drug, but the damage was already done, de Jong said. "Extensive damage to the lungs and possibly other organs are likely caused by both the direct effects of the virus as well as by the intense inflammatory response to the virus by the infected individual," de Jong said.


As to the second part. Your pretty attempt to seem less ignorant does not get you very far when GASP the 1918 pandemic when our medicine was far less STILL HAD SINGLE DIGIT MORTALITY % compared to the 60% of the current one.

and of course
Quote:
Health experts have warned against the overuse of Tamiflu, saying it would prove of little use if the H5N1 virus mutates to an easily transmissible form between humans.

Thanks for proving you are a complete idiot again.

Keep flailing around like a retard with a hole in his drool cup when you get caught out over and over. It's amusing
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http://www.genmay.com/showthread.php?t=572323

Last edited by TheMorlock; 02-04-2009 at 10:14 PM..
Old 02-04-2009, 09:58 PM TheMorlock is offline  
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TheMorlock
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what happened to mad cow is that meat cutting techniques were changed by law to keep neural tissue out of the consumer pipeline.

SARS did not have the infection rate that flu does nor did it have a 60% mortality rate.



Thanks for proving you are a complete idiot again.

Keep flailing around like a retard with a hole in his drool cup when you get caught out over and over. It's amusing
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Old 02-04-2009, 10:17 PM TheMorlock is offline  
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